By Gino Blefari, President & CEO, Intero Real Estate Services, Inc.
22 million homeowners can't sell.
Zillow this past week
reported
that 13 million homeowners were still underwater in Q1, and more than 9 million
more lacked enough equity to move. That's 25.4% of all homeowners with a mortgage.
This is a large part of the short inventory story.
These homeowners are essentially stuck. For now.
The total number of homeowners with less than 20% equity increases the negative
equity rate to 43.6%, or 22.3 million homeowners, Zillow said. Zillow's
factoring in that a seller would need at least 20% to cover selling and closing
fees, as well as make a down payment on a new home.
Of the 30 largest metro areas in Zillow's report, Las Vegas (71.5%) had the
highest percent of homeowners with less than 20% equity. Atlanta (64.1%) and
Riverside, Calif. (59.7%) were second and third.
What's going to bring back equity?
Time and demand.
But it needs to happen within delicate boundaries. If inventory continues to
lag by larger margins, demand will price out too many buyers – especially
first-time buyers.
As we've noted before, this is the only notable obstacle in the recovery right
now. As it stands, housing is being called the strongest sector of the economy.
Home prices are making
healthy
gains and sales are either chugging along in some markets or exploding off
the charts in others like we're seeing in Silicon Valley.
What needs to happen to remove this obstacle, however, is a combination of
things. Values will need to continue to climb, but more of the severe
underwater cases will also need opportunities to either refinance or short sell
out of their situations.
It may seem like a steep climb, but we're already on the hill looking up. Soon
we'll be looking back. Most expect more improvement on the horizon.
That's what's really holding back inventory and therefore home sales in many
markets right now. While home sales have rebound at a healthy pace in many
areas, lack of inventory holds a wrench in the gears.