Home values – it's a topic we hear about a lot in the news, and one of great
concern to home buyers and sellers, but one I feel many people gravely
misunderstand. A survey released last week from Zillow underscores this
misunderstanding.
The survey's headline reads: "42% of Home Buyers are
Unrealistic About Home Value Appreciation," and goes on to explain that despite
the recent economic downturn and volatility in the nation's housing markets, 42%
of those surveyed said they believe home values typically appreciate by 7% per
year.
On a national level, home values declined for five consecutive
years during the downturn. Historically, in a "normal" market, home values tend
to appreciate at an average 2-5% per year. What is it that creates such an
unrealistic view on home values – even now as much of the economy is still
suffering?
Psychology of ownership: I think part of the
reason home buyers are so optimistic about values appreciating is because they
truly believe in the value of home ownership. In their minds, owning a home is
the ultimate economic security, and one that will return financial value to
their lives in many ways. Because it is so valuable to them, they feel like the
numbers on appreciation move faster than historically they
have.
Leftover boom mentality: Many buyers today
witnessed the insane appreciation seen during the 10-year housing boom. News
headlines constantly read crazy stats like "California home values up 20% from a
year ago." I think that collectively, we got used to this and quickly lost sight
of history, which shows home values increasing at a much slower
pace.
In a fast-moving society, home ownership is a slow means
of financial gratification. However, even the stock market requires 10+
years to truly profit for the average investor. But you'd never know that by the
programs you see on TV and the offerings of being able to pick and trade stocks
online while you eat lunch.
I think it's important as real estate
service providers to give consumers the context around home values and what is
so-called "normal." Home ownership is a long-term investment that should be made
first and foremost as a way to provide a stable place to live, then secondly as
a way to create financial security. We can't let consumers assume that buying a
house is their ticket to retirement, just like we can't let them assume that
values will continue to decline forever.
A house is a different kind of
asset than other financial investments. You can't unload a house like you can
with other investments. And home values only really matter when it's time to buy
or sell anyway. I say we promote the true value of owning a home as what it was
always meant to be:
owning your own home, the place you live, the place
where you build a family and create your life's memories. If its value
appreciates in the process (which, historically, it normally does over the
long-term), then that's great. But keep those expectations in line with reality
and don't make any buying decisions based on what you think the resale value
will be a year from now. That's just the kind of boom mentality that got us into
this mess in the first place.