A Quick Pulse on the National Market

The housing market had a glimpse of good news this past week when the latest report on existing home sales showed an increase in sales both from the previous month and compared with a year earlier. There were a lot of things going on this report, so let’s dig in:

• Sales of existing homes increased 7.7% to a rate of 5 million in August, up from 4.67 million in July. Sales were up 18.6% from August 2010. Obviously, this is a great sign. While many news reports early this week focused on the dismal housing starts numbers, existing home sales are a better indicator to watch because as long as there’s a glut of existing home inventory in many markets, starts will remain low. In other words, existing sales need to move first before any improvement in starts will take place.
• Investors continue to gobble up property; the share of investors buying existing homes in August accounted for 22% of total sales, up from 18% in July and 21% in August 2010. Investors are motivated by the incredibly low cost of borrowing right now and the hot rental market that continues to see more demand and rising rents in many areas.
• First-time buyers remained steady, accounting for 32% of home purchases in August. That was unchanged from July, and up slightly from 31% in August a year ago. This is surprising, given the many problems with contracts falling through. But again, it’s a great time to buy for those buyers who are financially ready – rock-bottom interest rates, amazing affordability, and plenty of home inventory to choose from.
• Contract problems persist. The percent of contracts that fell through in August was 18%, up from 16% in July and 9% a year ago. Realtors say cancellations are largely due to declined mortgage applications or problems with appraised values coming back too low to support the negotiated price.

What’s the overall read? Not much has changed, despite the positive growth in sales. Low rates, bargain prices and a healthy rental market continue to lure more investors and first-time buyers. Restrictions in the lending market and problems with fluctuating home values continue to plague a lot of deals. What we’re seeing now is the slow growth many predicted and expected to happen earlier in the year.

What’s next? The Fed’s been discussing its new “Operation Twist” tactic, which basically means it’s going to be manipulating long-term interest rates by buying long-term bonds. The Fed has already said it’s keeping short-term rates low for the next two years – and at zero, they can’t even really do much more on that front. So, you guessed it – even lower interest rates may be on the horizon for home loan borrowers, which should help to fuel demand going into the traditionally slow season.